Overview

Welcome to the RoyOMartin Beyond the Board — your  snapshot of housing market trends, company performance, and regional development.

Scroll down to explore the latest edition and see how RoyOMartin continues to meet the needs of today’s housing market.

Market Insights

Key updates on housing affordability, building activity, and industry trends.

Company Insights

A look at RoyOMartin’s role in supporting affordable, resilient construction.

Regional Data

City-by-city permitting, starts, and sales information.

National Snapshot

A Market Working Through Its Own Medicine

The national housing picture heading into Q3 2026 is one of correction doing what corrections are supposed to do. Across the 25 markets tracked in this quarter’s Beyond the Board report, multifamily oversupply built through 2023 and 2024 is being absorbed, starts pipelines have contracted sharply, and the balance between production and demand is slowly, unevenly reasserting itself. Single-family markets in the Sun Belt, the Intermountain West, and the Midwest remain active, grounded in household formation, in-migration, and structural underbuilding that didn’t disappear just because rates stayed high. The condition is not recovery or recession. It is recalibration, and most markets are somewhere in the middle of it.

The defining pressure running through virtually every market this quarter is the gap between demand that remains real and the cost to serve it. Affordability constraints are suppressing first-time and middle-market buyers from Phoenix to Baton Rouge to Salt Lake City, even in markets where prices have pulled back meaningfully. Labor costs are elevated, and in several markets immigration enforcement has begun to tighten the construction workforce directly. Tariffs on materials are adding to project economics that were already thin. Meanwhile, multifamily in the hardest-hit markets like Austin, Dallas, and Salt Lake City is still absorbing last cycle’s supply wave, which keeps rental concessions elevated and new starts subdued. The markets showing the most resilience are those where employment diversity is broadest and where infrastructure investment is driving non-residential construction alongside housing demand.

The signals pointing forward are quieter than the noise, but they’re present. Multifamily pipelines have contracted enough in most markets that the supply overhang will begin to clear through 2027. Pending sales indices are lifting in several western markets. Technology and manufacturing investment is anchoring long-term demand in Phoenix, DFW, Reno, and the Utah corridor. The builder audience reading this report knows that cycles move through phases, and this one is moving. The work is to stay disciplined through the absorption period, read the structural demand in each submarket clearly, and position for the production recovery that follows. The fundamentals still point toward growth in the places where people are choosing to live and work, and steady execution and disciplined decisions keep us Building Tomorrow Together.

Paul-Pfingsten_2023-scaled-e1755618671606

A Letter from Paul

Lori Byrd August 2023 (2 of 6)

A Letter from Lori

Inventory Levels and Price Pressure

Housing inventory has shifted from well below normal levels to a meaningful surplus in the last couple of years, while price growth has slowed sharply from its 2021 peak. As inventory has increased, price appreciation has cooled, reinforcing the inverse relationship between supply and price pressure.

Median Home Sales Price

Home prices climbed sharply from 2021 through mid-2022, reaching a peak before softening and becoming more volatile through 2023–2025. Overall, prices have stabilized slightly below peak levels but remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic values.

Consumer Price Index

Inflation surged through 2021–2022, peaking in 2022–2023, before steadily easing into 2024 and 2025. However, both core inflation and shelter costs remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting persistent underlying price pressure.

Active Listings

Active listings rose modestly in 2025, finishing December up 12.1% year-over-year, but still below pre-pandemic levels. Inventory followed a typical seasonal pattern—building through midyear before tapering off into year-end—while remaining meaningfully lower than peak years like 2017–2019.

Oriented Strand Board Pricing

7/16, southwest, FOB mill, 2/24/2026, $255.00
7/16, southwest, FOB mill, 2/19/2025, $348.00
*Prices have begun to rebound since the first of the year, signaling a more measured and stable pricing climate.

Sources:

  • Home Sales, Construction Data and Starts: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Homebuilders, Zonda
  • Permitting: National Association of Homebuilders, Zonda
  • Economic Data and Indicators: American Press, Housing Wire, BuilderOnline, National Mortgage Professional, The Business Journals, Zonda, and Wall Street Journal
  • Pricing: Random Lengths, FastMarket RISI

More to Come From Beyond the Board

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Albuquerque

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,502 | -15.4%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,364
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)

  • 7.3 Months of Supply (MOS)

  • 3.2 Under Construction MOS

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,053 | +1.8%
  • Multi-Family 600 | -18.3%
Market Possibilities
  • Pacific Fusion’s $1 billion fusion research and manufacturing campus at Mesa del Sol — the largest economic development commitment in Albuquerque’s recent history — is scheduled to begin construction in 2026, supported by $776 million in city-issued IRBs and $10 million in LEDA direct incentives.
  • AeroVironment is investing $30 million in its Albuquerque defense manufacturing campus near Kirtland AFB, creating 450+ high-wage jobs over 10 years as the company’s local workforce has grown 30% YOY from 2023 to 2026.
  • Zonda estimates the market 5.7% underbuilt — meaningful structural undersupply — and the Pending Sales Index is up 4.5% YOY, consistent with improving demand absorption from a low-volume starting point.
Market Challenges
  • Annual job growth is negative (-2,844), making Albuquerque the only BTB market with a confirmed net job loss over the last 12 months — a direct headwind to organic housing demand that limits the near-term absorption case for new production.
  • Water supply is an emerging structural constraint: the Rio Grande dried in the Albuquerque reach in summer 2022, major reservoir storage is at historic lows, and ABCWUA faces over $140 million in deferred rehabilitation backlogs alongside a growing revenue-expense gap.
  • Starts are down 15.4% over the last 12 months, and per-square-foot residential construction costs are above the New Mexico state average; local builders have had to nearly double prices over the past five years, compressing affordability against an already income-constrained buyer pool.
Market Summary

Albuquerque is carrying an interesting tension: meaningful structural undersupply combined with a negative annual job growth reading. The Pacific Fusion and AeroVironment investments are real and consequential for long-term employment diversification, but they’re future-state demand catalysts — neither is yet generating significant residential absorption. Current starts are pulling back, multifamily production is contracting, and the metro’s job market is running in reverse. The 5.7% underbuilt position provides a floor against oversupply risk, and single-family permits are essentially flat YTD — not a contraction. For the near term, this is a market in a holding pattern waiting for the defense and advanced energy hiring to translate into housing demand.

Baton Rouge

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,446 | -9.8%
  • Multi-Family 314 | -23.4%
Market Possibilities
  • Hyundai Steel’s $5.8 billion electric arc furnace steel mill (1,300 direct jobs, 4,800 construction jobs, formal construction start Q3 2026) and CF Industries’ $4 billion blue ammonia complex — both in RiverPlex MegaPark in Ascension Parish — represent the largest simultaneous industrial investment commitment in Louisiana’s history and will generate housing demand in commuter corridors south of Baton Rouge beginning in 2027–2028.
  • Louisiana hit a record 2.01 million non-farm jobs in Q2 2026, and Greater Baton Rouge added 9,300 construction jobs in the past year — a 9%+ YOY gain that directly signals active nonresidential workload supporting the broader construction economy.
  • Hut 8’s $2.5 billion AI data center campus (West Feliciana Parish) and Turner Industries’ nuclear fabrication facilities (Port Allen) are anchoring a technology and advanced manufacturing cluster that is diversifying Baton Rouge’s employment base well beyond petrochemical dependence.
Market Challenges
  • Single-family residential permits fell to 2,872 in 2025 — lowest since 2015 and more than 35% below the 2021 peak — with builders citing higher interest rates, elevated insurance premiums, and lot shortages as the three primary constraints; the SF permit data shows no near-term recovery signal.
  • Louisiana’s property insurance market remains in severe distress — multiple major carriers withdrawn — with premiums cited among the primary factors in the permit decline; the Fortified Roof Grant Program expansion ($80 million, 2026) and new mandatory FORTIFIED discounts (effective January 2027) are incremental relief measures, not systemic solutions.
  • The industrial construction surge that produced 9,300 new construction jobs in Greater Baton Rouge has tightened the labor market for all project types — residential builders are competing for electricians, pipefitters, and ironworkers against megaproject operators paying premium rates.
Market Challenges

Baton Rouge is a market where the future demand story and the current supply story are running in opposite directions. Single-family production is at a decade low, insurance costs are suppressing buyer feasibility, and the City of St. George incorporation is adding regulatory uncertainty in the southeastern EBR corridor. Meanwhile, the industrial and data center investment underway is among the most concentrated in the South — Hyundai Steel, CF Industries, and Hut 8 represent over $12 billion in committed capital with construction accelerating through 2029. The residential recovery tied to those investments is most likely a 2027–2028 event as permanent operations begin and workforce housing demand materializes in Ascension and Livingston parishes.

Austin/Round Rock/Georgetown

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 13,439 | -15.1%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 16,132
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 6.6 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 2.8 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 8,188 | -2.2%
  • Multi-Family 2,318 | -51.6%
Market Possibilities
  • Samsung’s Taylor fab reached equipment move-in ceremony April 24, 2026, transitioning to an operating semiconductor facility with 1,500 permanent employees targeted by year-end and 2nm volume production in H2 2027 — anchoring the Williamson County corridor as a high-wage employment growth zone.
  • Q3 2025 was the first quarter in 16 where Austin multifamily absorption beat deliveries — a decisive inflection point; 16,171 units remain under construction (down from 27,000 a year ago), and the self-correcting pipeline will thin materially into 2027, setting up a recovery in conditions.
  • The Pending Sales Index is up 9.5% YOY, and Austin’s 0.8% underbuilt position combined with 19,275 net new jobs annually — among the highest in the BTB set — supports long-term production at or above current levels once the multifamily correction runs its course.
Market Challenges
  • Austin’s multifamily market delivered a record 30,002 units in 2025, driving asking rents down 5% YOY to $1,492 while the national average rose 0.2%; multifamily permits in March 2026 were down 69% YOY, and NAHB YTD multi-family permits are down 51.6% — the correction is deep and ongoing.
  • Total construction starts reached $20.4 billion in 2025 and are projected to rise to $21.8 billion in 2026, with ENR noting megaprojects “continue to strain the local market from a skilled-labor perspective” — a direct labor availability challenge for residential builders.
  • New home median ($368,000) is significantly below existing home median ($517,000), keeping builders on incentives including rate buydowns and price reductions; industrial vacancy remains elevated at 22.3%, signaling that the broader economic cycle has not fully recovered.
Market Summary

Austin’s multifamily correction is the most documented story in the BTB set, and it’s genuinely working itself through. Absorption finally beat deliveries in Q3 2025, the pipeline is thinning, and rents are stabilizing. The single-family side is considerably steadier — permits near flat, demand supported by 19,000+ net new jobs annually, and Samsung’s Taylor fab creating a durable new employment center in Williamson County. The labor competition from $21 billion in total construction starts is the shared challenge for every segment of the Austin market. For the trade channel, single-family production in the Kyle-Buda-Georgetown corridor and semiconductor workforce housing in Taylor and Hutto are the near-term volume opportunity.

Dallas/Fort Worth/Arlington

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 38,699 | -17.7%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 40,754
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 6.9 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 3.9 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 21,588 | -4.5%
  • Multi-Family 12,420 | -9.1%
Market Possibilities
  • Wistron and NVIDIA opened the first AI supercomputer manufacturing facility in the United States at AllianceTexas in north Fort Worth on July 22, 2026 ($761 million, 800+ jobs); Foxlink’s AI Factory (900 jobs) and Celestica’s $876 million campus (1,700 jobs) at AllianceTexas are simultaneously under construction or committed — the largest cluster of advanced electronics manufacturing investment in a single Texas corridor.
  • DFW led the nation in housing permits for the ninth consecutive year in 2025, and population growth was No. 1 nationally; new home sales at 40,754 remain the highest absolute volume in the BTB set, and the 1.5% underbuilt position confirms that structural demand is absorbing current production.
  • DFW’s data center market will more than double by year-end 2026 (total inventory up 47% to 869.5 MW, 425 MW under construction), with DataBank’s $2 billion Red Oak campus and Grupo ACS’s $2.1 billion north Fort Worth project as the two largest active programs — extending a construction employment base that supports residential demand across northern Collin and Denton counties.
Market Challenges
  • Annual starts fell 17.7% over the last 12 months, and multifamily vacancy is at 12.3% with starts down 14% YOY mid-2026; suburban submarkets in Frisco and Plano are experiencing elevated vacancy from speculative overbuilding that will take time to absorb.
  • Production homebuilders are experiencing labor cost pressure as specialty trades are pulled toward higher-paying nonresidential projects; ERCOT grid additional resilience concerns during peak summer demand from the data center power load are a systemic infrastructure risk.
  • The Pending Sales Index is up only 5.3% YOY — modest for a metro with DFW’s population growth — and corporate relocation competition is described as “much fiercer” with more companies opting for regional hubs rather than full headquarters moves, tempering the pace of high-income demand creation.
Market Summary

Dallas-Fort Worth is the largest residential market in the BTB set by every measure, and it’s in a production moderation cycle, not a distress situation. Starts are down nearly 18% but still running at almost 39,000 annually. Multifamily is working through an oversupply correction in suburban submarkets while the data center and advanced manufacturing buildout at AllianceTexas is generating the kind of employment base that sustains demand through rate cycles. The labor competition from nonresidential projects is real and will keep pressure on residential build costs through at least 2027. For the trade channel, the Collin and Denton County outer-ring single-family markets are the most active production zones, and they’re not stopping.

Fayetteville/Springdale/Rogers

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 2,879 | -3.4%
  • Multi-Family 1,864 | +63.8%
Market Possibilities
  • Milken Institute ranked Northwest Arkansas No. 1 best-performing large metro in the U.S. in January 2026; the metro adds approximately 250 new residents per week and carries 5,825 net new jobs annually — a demand engine with structural depth.
  • Drake Farms ($1 billion, 165-acre, 2,400 homes) broke ground in northwest Fayetteville, anchored by Washington Regional Medical Center’s 40-acre expansion — the largest single mixed-use commitment currently underway in the metro.
  • Walmart’s completed 350-acre Home Office campus (15,000+ associates) and the adjacent Walton STEM University (new campus confirmed, 2026 design revealed) sustain the corporate headquarters demand base that drives premium residential absorption.
Market Challenges
  • Zonda estimates the market is 19.2% overvalued with average Benton County prices near $470,000 — widening the affordability gap for service workers, educators, and first responders, with direct hiring and workforce retention consequences.
  • Sewer system capacity has emerged as a binding development constraint across six high-demand communities (Bentonville, Rogers, Centerton, Farmington, Decatur, Elkins) with no regional authority and no near-term legislative resolution.
  • ARPA-funded municipal projects are drawing skilled construction labor away from private residential development, with one developer on record stating wages and availability will remain challenging until those projects are complete.
Market Summary

Northwest Arkansas is one of the fastest-growing metros in the country and it’s building to match, but it’s running into the physical limits of its own infrastructure. Residential permit activity is near historic highs, corporate investment keeps arriving, and population growth continues at a pace most mid-size metros would envy. The binding constraint right now is below-ground — sewer capacity is actively gating development in some of the metro’s most desirable communities. Affordability has eroded meaningfully, regulatory fragmentation across municipalities is concentrating development where approvals are easiest rather than where demand is strongest, and construction labor is competing against public projects. The fundamentals remain excellent; the execution environment is more complicated.

Houston/The Woodlands/Sugar Land

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 36,575 | -5.9%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 34,383
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 7.5 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 4.5 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 24,228 | -5.8%
  • Multi-Family 5,084 | -43.9%
Market Possibilities
  • Eli Lilly’s $6.5 billion pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in northeast Houston’s Generation Park (600+ jobs averaging $102,503, 4,000 construction jobs, JETI tax agreement finalized 2026) is the largest single industrial investment in the BTB set by dollar value, anchored within the Houston MSA.
  • Houston led all U.S. metro areas in construction job growth from February 2025 to February 2026, adding 11,200 construction workers (4% gain); Dodge forecasts total construction starts rising 6% YOY in 2026, with nonresidential up 11.7%, sustained by healthcare and data center demand.
  • CenterPoint Energy’s interconnection queue grew from 1 GW to 8 GW in less than one year — signaling demand that could produce a 50% rise in electric load by 2031 — representing a multi-billion dollar infrastructure construction program across the metro that sustains construction employment and residential demand throughout the decade.
Market Challenges
  • Annual starts fell 5.9% over the last 12 months and multifamily permits are down 43.9% YTD; multifamily completions in 2026 are projected at the lowest level since 2013, with the most pronounced supply pullback inside I-610 — where 2026 deliveries equal just 10% of 2025’s total.
  • Houston’s high property taxes and flooding vulnerability — Harris County’s $2.5 billion flood reduction program is ongoing, and Harvey legacy continues shaping buyer insurance costs and development location decisions — add friction costs that partially offset the metro’s affordability advantage over coastal markets.
  • The Kinder Houston Area Survey shows the percentage of Houstonians rating job opportunities as “good or excellent” fell from approximately 75% to 48% — the largest single-year drop since the 1982–1983 oil bust — signaling meaningful sentiment deterioration in the energy-dependent employment base.
Market Summary

Houston is the second-largest residential production market in the BTB set and it’s navigating a modest pullback — starts down about 6%, multifamily contracting sharply — from a very high base. The Lilly Generation Park investment is the most significant individual employer commitment in the BTB set this quarter, and the broader Gulf Coast LNG and data center buildout keeps Houston’s construction economy active across project types. The near-term concern is the consumer confidence deterioration in the Kinder survey; energy-sector employment cycles have shaped Houston’s housing market before, and the current softening in job-opportunity sentiment warrants monitoring. For the trade channel, master-planned community production in Katy, The Woodlands, and Fort Bend County remains the volume story.

Lafayette

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,090 | -5.7%
  • Multi-Family 0 | -100%
Market Possibilities
  • Southwest Louisiana’s LNG construction boom reached three new final investment decisions in 2026 — Venture Global CP2 Phase 2 ($8.6B), Caturus Commonwealth LNG ($13B), and Delfin FLNG 1 ($5B) — with Lafayette serving as the regional operational and workforce hub for a $50 billion+ LNG construction footprint.
  • Lafayette Parish recorded 341 commercial real estate transactions in 2025 — a record year at an average of $1.08 million per transaction, up 67% from 2024 — reflecting a broader economic momentum that is increasingly evident in the upper residential tiers.
  • Zonda estimates the market 1.0% underbuilt with job growth outperforming U.S. rates; the market is characterized as “balanced and resilient,” with active suburban new construction in Youngsville, Broussard, and Scott in the $230,000–$350,000 range.
Market Challenges
  • Louisiana’s property insurance crisis is the dominant constraint on Lafayette’s multifamily production — one local affordable project saw premiums jump from $70,000 to $140,000 mid-construction with lender financing cut by $500,000; the primary multifamily developer has no new projects beyond current construction.
  • Lafayette Parish was newly added to the 130 MPH wind zone in 2026, expanding FORTIFIED Roof building requirements — an additional cost layer that builders in the parish must now absorb for new residential construction.
  • The market carries a 13.0% overvaluation reading from Zonda alongside statewide inflation at 4.6% in 2026, compressing affordability for first-time and middle-market buyers while oil and gas services employment remains 15,000 positions below peak levels.
Market Summary

Lafayette is a market defined by two economies running at different speeds. The energy services and LNG supply chain economy is surging — Louisiana’s capital investment reached a record $61 billion in 2025 — and Lafayette is positioned as the regional hub for much of the Gulf Coast LNG buildout now accelerating. The residential market reflects that unevenness: luxury sales at $1M+ are up fourfold since 2019, while the middle market is constrained by insurance costs, affordability compression, and a multifamily development pause that looks structural, not cyclical. For builders and dealers, suburban single-family in the active growth corridors is the near-term opportunity; multifamily is unlikely to recover meaningfully until the insurance environment changes.

Las Vegas/Henderson/Paradise

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 8,817 | -25.8%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)

  • 9,363

Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 6.0 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 4.8 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 3,962 | -25.3%
  • Multi-Family 575 | -79.9%
Market Possibilities
  • Zonda estimates Las Vegas 10.0% underbuilt — the deepest undersupply reading in the BTB set — providing strong structural demand support as the current production pullback works through the system.
  • The Athletics Las Vegas ballpark ($2 billion, Mortenson-McCarthy, opening day 2028) and Bally’s 35-acre integrated resort development on the Tropicana site represent $5+ billion in active entertainment investment generating sustained construction employment and hospitality-worker residential demand through 2028.
  • Lyten’s $1.5 billion lithium-sulfur battery gigafactory in North Las Vegas and Intermountain Health’s $650 million children’s hospital are anchoring an industrial and healthcare construction cluster that diversifies Las Vegas construction demand beyond hospitality.
Market Challenges
  • Annual starts fell 25.8% over the last 12 months, and the NAHB-Zonda permit divergence is the most extreme in the BTB set on both SF and MF sides — the divergence warrants editorial review before publication to determine which data source better reflects current production.
  • Federal BLM control of 94% of Clark County’s vacant land constrains development to 6% of county area; infill development carries 20–40% cost premiums, and UNLV projects 380,000 new residents over the next decade against a land supply that builders say will run short before demand is met.
  • Las Vegas is the most water-constrained large metro in the United States; Lake Mead levels remain below historical norms, the Southern Nevada Water Authority has implemented aggressive conservation measures, and multi-state Colorado River negotiations remain unresolved.
Market Summary

Las Vegas’s 10% underbuilt position is the most compelling structural housing demand signal in the BTB set, but the market is running two conflicting data stories simultaneously — NAHB YTD permit figures show sharp declines while Zonda 2026 estimates project significant increases. That divergence needs editorial resolution. On the ground, production is clearly pulling back from the recent cycle’s pace, but the metro’s demand fundamentals — 15,000 net new jobs annually, active sports and entertainment investment, and deep structural undersupply — argue against a prolonged production pause. Water and land supply remain the hard limits on how much Las Vegas can ultimately grow.

Little Rock/North Little Rock/Conway

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
Home Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,194 | -13.5%
  • Multi-Family 225 | -39.4%
Market Possibilities
  • AVAIO Digital Leo — a $6 billion AI-ready data center campus on 760 acres near Wrightsville with Phase 1 targeting June 2027 completion — is the largest economic investment in Arkansas history and is generating direct construction employment now.
  • Google’s dual-campus program (Port of Little Rock and Conway, combined approximately $2 billion) plus Welspun Tubular’s $150 million LSAW expansion represent a dense concentration of nonresidential construction demand creating construction employment and supporting residential demand in Conway and west Little Rock corridors.
  • Zonda estimates the market 5.4% underbuilt — the deepest undersupply reading among the Arkansas markets — providing structural support for residential production even as current starts pull back.
Market Challenges
  • Single-family permits are down 13.5% YTD and multi-family is down 39.4%, with mortgage rates in the 6.25–6.75% range suppressing new-construction affordability; as of April 2026, new homes carry a $150,000 median price premium over existing homes.
  • Simultaneous large-scale buildouts — AVAIO, Google, Welspun, Lexicon, Arkansas Children’s, Argenta — are creating heightened competition for construction labor and specialty trades across the metro, elevating cost escalation and scheduling risk for residential projects.
  • A proposed moratorium on new large-scale data centers in unincorporated Pulaski County (approved by Quorum Court) and new tiered regulatory framework from the Little Rock Board of Directors introduce permitting uncertainty for future phases of the industrial and data center cluster.
Market Summary

Little Rock is carrying one of the deepest undersupply positions in the BTB market set while simultaneously managing the most concentrated nonresidential construction buildout in the state’s history. Current residential production is contracting — permits are down meaningfully on both sides — but the structural demand case is building. The Google and AVAIO campuses are in the ground, median household income grew 5.5% in 2025, and construction employment in the broader Central Arkansas area grew at the fastest pace in the state. The near-term squeeze is labor availability and affordability at the new-home price point. Longer term, this looks like a market with demand support ahead of it.

Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 4,652
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)

  • 18.1 Months of Supply (MOS)

  • N/A Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family: 6,494 | +3.3%
  • Multi-Family: 11,937 | +80.2%
Market Possibilities
  • LA County recorded 15,735 multifamily units permitted in the year ending March 2026 — up 85% YOY and the largest increase among top-tier U.S. metros nationally — reflecting a genuine acceleration in multifamily production despite the broader market’s structural challenges.
  • Wildfire rebuild demand (approximately 18,000 structures destroyed or damaged in January 2025 fires) is creating sustained construction demand, supported by California’s Multifamily Finance Super NOFA disaster program and active LADBS Self-Certification relief for fire area permits.
  • AB 130 (signed June 2025) locks in 2025 Title 24 code for all residential construction through 2031, giving builders a 10-year design approval window with no mid-cycle code change — a meaningful planning certainty gain in a historically uncertain regulatory environment.
Market Challenges
  • The California homeowners insurance market remains in structural crisis — major carriers withdrawn or reduced, FAIR Plan as last resort for fire-area properties — compressing multifamily development feasibility and suppressing residential demand in high fire severity zones.
  • At 18.1 months of supply and with renters requiring $48.04/hour to afford average asking rents, affordability is acutely constrained; the lowest young-adult homeownership rate in the nation (10.5% for ages 25–34 in LA-OC) signals a deeply structurally challenged demand base for for-sale housing.
  • Olympic, wildfire rebuild, transit construction, and multifamily development programs are simultaneously competing for construction labor, with material costs 40%+ above pre-pandemic levels and permit processing averaging 79 days even in the fire relief zone.
Market Summary

Los Angeles is simultaneously the most constrained and most active housing market in the BTB set. Multifamily permitting surged 85% YOY — driven by state housing mandates, wildfire rebuild demand, and transit-oriented development — but the market sits at 18 months of supply and the insurance crisis continues to limit what’s financeable in fire-adjacent zones. For lumber and building material suppliers, the real story is the volume of construction activity underway: Olympic infrastructure, Purple Line extension, wildfire rebuilds, and multifamily deliveries are all running concurrently. Sustained construction demand through at least 2028 is the baseline expectation regardless of the for-sale market’s affordability conditions.

Ogden

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,866 | +2.3%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,398
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)

  • 10.2 Months of Supply (MOS)

  • 5.9 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family: 911 | -5.0%
  • Multi-Family: 653 | +7.4%
Market Possibilities
  • Northrop Grumman’s $141 billion Sentinel nuclear missile program at Roy Innovation Center (adjacent to Hill AFB) is projected to create 3,400 direct jobs and 2,700 indirect/induced jobs generating $470+ million in annual labor income — a multi-decade residential demand anchor in the Weber County corridor.
  • Hill AFB’s $1.2 billion East Campus expansion (potentially adding 1,000 jobs) and the existing 26,893-person installation ($12.7 billion total economic impact) provide the strongest federally-backed employment base of any BTB market in the Mountain West.
  • The 2034 Winter Olympics designation (Snowbasin as primary alpine venue) is attracting lifestyle buyers to the Ogden area ahead of the 2027–2032 infrastructure investment window, with apartment vacancy at 4.8% — second-lowest on the Wasatch Front.
Market Challenges
  • At 10.2 months of supply and 19.0% overvalued per Zonda, Ogden’s inventory is elevated relative to most Wasatch Front peers; annual job growth is negative (-1,283) and starts are running ahead of absorption — new home sales of 1,398 against 1,866 annual starts reflects a production-to-demand gap.
  • WonderBlock’s 354-unit residential injection and 100,000 SF office downtown represent a large supply increase for a relatively limited current urban demand base; above-market rents may limit absorption pace in a market where the median closed price has risen to approximately $403,000.
  • NAHB-Zonda permit divergence is extreme on both SF and MF sides — editorial resolution of the data discrepancy is needed before publication; the divergence magnitude is among the highest in the BTB set.
Market Summary

Ogden is a market caught between its current fundamentals and its long-term potential. The current reading — elevated inventory, negative job growth, starts outpacing sales — signals a near-term supply digestion challenge. The long-term case is compelling: Hill AFB and the Sentinel program provide a stable, growing federal employment base; the 2034 Olympics is bringing lifestyle buyer attention; and the West Weber Industrial District’s 3,400-acre master plan positions the corridor for significant future demand. The permit data divergence between NAHB and Zonda needs editorial resolution before this card publishes. For the trade channel, residential production tied to Hill AFB workforce remains the near-term constant; the Olympic-driven appreciation is concentrated in higher price points.

Oklahoma City

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 5,208 | +14.1%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 4,017
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 9.5 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 5.6 Under Construction
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family: 3,521 | +1.7%
  • Multi-Family: 628 | -45.6%
Market Possibilities
  • Oklahoma City metro recorded 5,157 housing starts in 2025 — highest since 2022 — and Dodge Construction forecasts total construction value in the OKC MSA growing 12% to approximately $5.4 billion in 2026, with nonresidential up 22%; construction was the leading job-growth sector in 2025.
  • Tinker AFB projects 2,900+ high-demand job openings at average wages approaching $87,000 in FY2025–FY2026 combined; Boeing’s Regional Sustainment Center designation added 300–400 engineering positions; Tinker’s 44,539-worker aerospace cluster is a durable, federally funded residential demand anchor.
  • Annual starts are up 14.1% — one of only a handful of positive starts readings in the BTB set — and Dodge projects flat residential construction value growth holding 2025’s strong pace into 2026.
Market Challenges
  • At 9.5 months of supply and 0.6% overbuilt, Oklahoma City carries the most elevated inventory position among the Oklahoma BTB markets, with 17.5% overvaluation per Zonda; new home sales at 4,017 lag annual starts of 5,208, indicating production is running ahead of absorption.
  • Annual job growth is negative (-966 net jobs), making the active starts and construction expansion a momentum play against a softening employment base — energy sector volatility remains a visible risk for corporate real estate decisions and residential demand in energy-adjacent submarkets.
  • Multifamily permits are down 45.6% YTD (NAHB), and the Continental Coliseum arena ($900 million, completion late summer 2028) is creating both a downtown construction employment opportunity and a near-term labor competition dynamic for residential trades.
Market Summary

Oklahoma City has an unusual profile: starts are up 14% over the last 12 months while net job growth is slightly negative and inventory has risen above nine months. That combination suggests builders pushed production into a market now working through a modest oversupply correction. The Tinker AFB aerospace cluster — 44,539 workers and 2,900+ new openings projected — provides real stability that separates OKC from purely energy-dependent metros, and MAPS 4 investment continues to improve livability. For 2026, the question is whether the Continental Coliseum construction catalyst and aerospace hiring can offset energy sector softness before the inventory position requires pricing adjustments.

Phoenix/Mesa/Chandler

Starts (Last 12 Months)

  • 17,566 | -23.6%

New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 20,683
Housing Inventory
  • 6.1 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 3.2 Under Construction MOS
Permits (Phoenix/Mesa/Scottsdale)
  • Single-Family: 11,989 | -14%
  • Multi-Family: 5,070 | -21.1%
Market Possibilities
  • TSMC’s additional $100 billion Arizona commitment (July 2026) brings its total planned investment to $265 billion across 10 fabs, generating an estimated 12,000 construction jobs and 12,000 permanent positions in north Phoenix.
  • Multifamily net absorption reached 4,496 units in Q1 2026, up 34% YOY, while construction deliveries fell 28% — the supply correction is actively working in favor of future fundamentals.
  • The Pending Sales Index is up 3.1% YOY and 8.5% MOM, signaling improving buyer demand momentum heading into the second half of 2026.
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Market Challenges
  • Annual starts fell 23.6% over the last 12 months; the market is running 0.4% overbuilt per Zonda, and new home average asking rents softened 3% YOY — absorption recovery is still in progress.
  • A Maricopa County Superior Court ruling in April 2026 invalidated ADWR’s 2023 groundwater standard changes, reinstating development certifications in outer-ring suburbs, but formal rulemaking remains unresolved and long-term water supply uncertainty persists.
  • Semiconductor and data center megaprojects are absorbing a large share of the skilled trades workforce — a projected shortfall of 10,000+ qualified semiconductor workers annually is creating labor competition that affects residential construction scheduling.
Market Summary

Phoenix is working through a production pullback while a generational economic catalyst accelerates beneath it. Annual starts are down nearly a quarter over the last 12 months, and the market carries a modest overbuilt position, but multifamily absorption is recovering and new home sales remain substantial at over 20,000 units. TSMC’s expanded commitment positions the north Phoenix corridor for durable, workforce-driven housing demand through the end of the decade. The near-term risk is labor competition — the same tradespeople serving residential projects are being pulled toward semiconductor and data center construction. Water supply remains the structural wildcard that no investment announcement resolves.

Provo/Orem

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 5,526 | -7.4%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 5,016
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 8.7 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 5.1 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family: 2,342 | -15.6%
  • Multi-Family: 699 | -24.7%
Market Possibilities
  • Texas Instruments’ $11.5 billion across two Lehi fabrication facilities — with the second plant beginning initial production in 2026 and 800+ new direct jobs committed — represents the most concentrated semiconductor employer in a single BTB market corridor, with secondary suppliers already locating along the Lehi-American Fork industrial corridor.
  • Utah City (Vineyard, 700 acres on former Geneva Steel site) opened its first residential units and retail in 2025–2026, with Huntsman Cancer Institute breaking ground on a 272,000 SF cancer center; FrontRunner rail access and active TIF support make this one of the most infrastructure-complete master-community locations in the Mountain West.
  • Utah County’s population grew by 133,000+ residents between 2020 and 2026 — adding roughly 22,000 people annually — with BYU’s 32,000 students and UVU’s growing enrollment creating structural, recurring residential demand that is geographically bounded and insulated from migration cycle risk.
Market Challenges
  • Lehi’s median home price near $701,900 — approaching Bay Area starter-market levels on a local income base — has compressed affordability even for tech workers, and Silicon Slopes’ concentration risk (software, fintech, tech services) creates cyclical hiring exposure that proved material in the 2022–2023 tech pullback.
  • Zonda estimates the market 3.4% overbuilt with 8.7 months of supply; the Pending Sales Index is -4.5% YOY — the only clearly negative PSI reading among Utah BTB markets — indicating softening near-term buyer engagement relative to the recent pace.
  • Construction labor is exceptionally tight across Utah County; the concentration of large-scale projects (TI fabs, Utah City, Eagle Mountain and Saratoga Springs community development, Mountain View Corridor) competing for the same tradespeople is a persistent cost and scheduling pressure for every project tier.
Market Summary

Provo-Orem-Lehi is one of the most structurally dynamic markets in the BTB set — 133,000 new residents in six years, TI fabs expanding, Utah City building out a transit-anchored new community — but it’s working through a modest supply correction at 8.7 months of inventory. The affordability gap at $700,000+ in Lehi has shifted demand toward Eagle Mountain and Saratoga Springs, where builders are delivering in the $525,000 range. Tech sector concentration risk is real and worth monitoring, but the BYU and UVU enrollment base provides a demand floor most tech-hub markets lack. Southwest Utah Valley is the active production zone for the next several years.

Reno

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,092 | -30.1%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,446
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)

  • 6.1 Months of Supply (MOS)

  • 4.5 Under Construction MOS

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family: 809 | -25.5%
  • Multi-Family: 1,154 | +53.3%
Market Possibilities
  • Grand Sierra Resort’s $435 million, 10,000-seat arena broke ground October 2025 — described as the largest private capital investment in Reno’s history — with the full $1 billion GSR redevelopment program representing a decade-long anchor for downtown construction demand.
  • Northern Nevada ranks fifth globally as an emerging data center market, with Apple, Google, Microsoft, Switch, and multiple hyperscale operators at Tahoe Reno Industrial Center; the MoreRNO airport program ($650 million New Gen Concourse, groundbreaking March 2026) is the largest construction program in the airport’s history.
  • Nearly 43% of Reno’s online home-listing views come from California buyers — with San Francisco as the No. 1 search origin nationally — and those buyers frequently arrive with $550,000–$700,000+ in Bay Area equity, making them largely rate-insensitive demand.
Market Challenges
  • Annual starts fell 30.1% over the last 12 months — the steepest production decline among Nevada BTB markets — and NAHB YTD single-family permits are down 25.5% while Zonda projects a 38.3% increase; the magnitude of that divergence requires editorial resolution.
  • Reno’s median near $600,000 has compressed affordability for workforce buyers without California equity; at current mortgage rates, the median home requires household incomes well into six figures, suppressing first-time buyer demand and concentrating absorption among equity-rich migrators.
  • Northern Nevada’s industrial market is in a pronounced correction after its 2021–2024 boom — industrial construction under construction dropped 82% YOY entering 2026, vacancy climbed to approximately 11%, and speculative starts have paused — reducing the employment catalyst that drove prior residential cycles.
Market Summary

Reno is managing a significant starts correction while its long-term demand case remains intact. The California migration pipeline is structural — No. 1 destination for San Francisco buyers nationally — and data center and airport construction are providing a durable base of nonresidential activity. The challenge is that the industrial expansion that drove the prior housing cycle is in retreat: speculative industrial space is sitting vacant, new starts have paused, and the workforce housing demand that followed warehousing and logistics jobs is moderating accordingly. For residential builders, the near-term opportunity is equity-rich California buyer product above $600,000; the entry-level market is constrained by price relative to local incomes.

Sacramento/Roseville/Folsom

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 5,783 | -25.2%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 6,561
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 7.6 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 3.6 Under Construction MOS
Permits (Sacramento/Roseville/Arden/Arcade)
  • Single-Family: 4,057 | -8.4%
  • Multi-Family: 1,490 | +26.2%
Market Possibilities
  • Bosch’s Roseville facility is now in sample production of silicon carbide semiconductors — the company’s first U.S. semiconductor manufacturing operation — supported by up to $225 million in CHIPS Program funding and a potential 1,700-job employment target.
  • Sacramento’s region achieved its highest housing production in two decades in 2024 per SACOG; Bay Area migration sustains demand (Sacramento median $525K vs. San Francisco $1.5M), with approximately 20,000 net new residents arriving annually from coastal California.
  • The 4.6% underbuilt reading from Zonda — the deepest undersupply among California BTB markets — provides structural demand support as current starts work through their pullback.
Market Challenges
  • Annual starts fell 25.2% over the last 12 months; permit data diverges sharply between NAHB and Zonda — both directions and magnitudes — suggesting data lag or methodology differences that require editorial resolution before publication.
  • Sacramento City Unified School District faces potential insolvency and possible state takeover, adding fiscal uncertainty to a metro that draws significant residential demand from families prioritizing school quality.
  • Tariffs on imported materials and immigration enforcement effects on California’s construction workforce — heavily reliant on immigrant labor in framing, concrete, and finishing — are compounding cost pressure that builders are absorbing through rate buydowns and lot premium reductions.
Market Summary

Sacramento is one of the more structurally sound housing markets in California right now. It sits in meaningful undersupply, it’s adding residents at a consistent clip from Bay Area migration, and Bosch’s semiconductor investment signals growing long-term employment diversification beyond state government. The current starts pullback — down 25% over the last 12 months — is the near-term production story, and the NAHB-Zonda permit divergence should be resolved before this card is published. For the trade channel, the Folsom Ranch master community and the Upper Westside plan (9,400 homes approved June 2026) represent meaningful pipeline for the back half of this decade.

Salt Lake City

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 3,442 | +2.5%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 2,823
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)

  • 12.6 Months of Supply (MOS)

  • 6.9 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family: 1,419 | -6.8%
  • Multi-Family: 1,253 | -23.5%
Market Possibilities
  • The Power District ($3.5 billion commitment, Larry H. Miller Real Estate) broke ground October 2025 with the Rocky Mountain Power HQ as Phase 1, designating the 100-acre Jordan River site as the preferred location for a potential Major League Baseball stadium — “shovel-ready” by late 2026 as MLB evaluates expansion — setting up one of the most consequential mixed-use residential catalysts in the market’s history.
  • Salt Lake City’s 2034 Winter Olympics designation is catalyzing $4+ billion in Utah local government bond issuance (2025 alone, up 140% YOY) with infrastructure investment scheduled to accelerate from 2027 through 2033; the Wasatch Front is projected to grow from 2.7 million to 3.7 million residents by 2055.
  • The Pending Sales Index is up 43.1% YOY — the highest forward-demand signal in the entire BTB set — indicating strong buyer engagement ahead despite elevated inventory levels; annual job growth of 9,989 is among the highest in the Mountain West BTB group.
Market Challenges
  • At 12.6 months of supply and with the record 2023 multifamily delivery cycle still working through absorption, Salt Lake City carries the highest inventory position among the Utah BTB markets; concessions remain widespread and rent growth is muted, though Building Salt Lake projects correction by year-end 2026.
  • Salt Lake City nonresidential construction costs rose 3.38% in Q1 2026 — the fastest quarterly increase of any Mortenson-tracked U.S. market — driven by data center labor competition tightening electrical and MEP trades; annualized escalation running over 13%, affecting every project tier.
  • Water scarcity is a long-term growth constraint: Utah’s arid climate combined with rapid population growth is creating resource challenges, and grid capacity constraints from data centers, EV adoption, and electrification are compressing available power infrastructure for new residential development.
Market Summary

Salt Lake City is sitting with elevated inventory while generating the strongest Pending Sales Index in the BTB set — a pairing that reflects the multifamily supply overhang from 2023’s record deliveries working down as new buyer demand grows. The Power District, The Point at Draper, and the 2034 Olympics infrastructure pipeline represent the most concentrated mixed-use development program in Salt Lake Valley since the 2002 Games. Data center labor competition is driving 13%+ annualized nonresidential construction cost escalation — a broad-based pressure affecting every project tier. Long-term growth is among the most durable in the Mountain West; the near-term task is working through 12.6 months of supply.

San Antonio/New Braunfels

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 17,373 | -6.4%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 16,954
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 5.9 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 3.7 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family: 4,979 | -0.6%
  • Multi-family: 847 | -18.2%
Market Possibilities
  • Bexar County now has at least 30 data centers, including the CloudBurst $14.5 billion, 1.2 GW campus (Guadalupe County, Phase 1 live Q4 2026), Vantage’s 432,800 SF campus (96 MW, completion 2026), and Rowan Digital’s 300 MW campus in Medina County — the largest concentrated data center investment in a single Texas metro outside DFW.
  • San Antonio ranked No. 10 in the U.S. for new home construction in Q1 2026, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas projecting it leads all Texas metros in job growth; nonfarm employment grew 1.4–1.9% YOY and Toyota’s South Side axle plant begins production fall 2026 with a workforce growing toward 4,000.
  • The Pending Sales Index is -0.8% — essentially flat — in a market with only 5.9 months of supply and 1.1% underbuilt status; this combination suggests the market is balanced rather than soft, with new construction inventory up 18% giving buyers choices that the resale market hasn’t historically offered.
Market Challenges
  • Full-year 2026 apartment deliveries are expected to fall 63% from 2025 levels per Northmarq; while that reduces supply pressure, it reflects a financing and cost environment that is not supporting new development commitments, with groundbreakings in the first half of 2026 running at only 10.5% of the volume produced four years prior.
  • Federal immigration enforcement is creating measurable construction labor stress — 34.5% of San Antonio construction workers are foreign-born (among the highest U.S. shares), and the South Texas Builders Association has directly warned that enforcement actions impact economic outlooks.
  • Project Marvel (new Spurs arena, $4 billion total development) remains in the cost/feasibility study phase as of June 2026 with formal negotiations not yet begun; the arena’s timeline uncertainty affects planning confidence for the entertainment district residential and hospitality development that would follow.
Market Summary

San Antonio is in a buyer-friendly transition after a sustained seller’s market, with active listings up 12.4% YOY, days on market at 87, and builders offering incentives across the board. The data center investment coming to Bexar and Guadalupe counties is substantial and is generating both construction employment and the kind of tech-infrastructure workforce demand that will translate into residential absorption in the Schertz-Cibolo and New Braunfels corridors. The near-term headwinds are immigration enforcement effects on construction labor and the multifamily market’s sharp production pullback. The Edwards Aquifer drought situation and the pending UDC data center zoning amendments are regulatory processes worth tracking through the back half of 2026.

San Diego/Carlsbad

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 2,248 | -41.9%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 2,516
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 14.3 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 9.5 Under Construction MOS
Permits
  • Single-Family: 1,597 | -9.2%
  • Multi-Family: 3,390 | -13.1%
Market Possibilities
  • Shield AI closed a $2.25 billion venture round in Q1 2026 — the largest VC deal in San Diego history — anchoring a defense tech expansion that supports high-wage employment and housing demand across Mission Valley and Kearny Mesa submarkets.
  • The Pending Sales Index is up 27.6% YOY — the strongest leading-demand signal in any California BTB market — indicating improving buyer engagement despite the elevated inventory position.
  • The 1.3% overbuilt reading is among the smallest overbuilt positions in the BTB set, and active Affordable Housing Permit Now processing (9-day average review) is supporting incremental production in the face of a structural 55,700-unit deficit built up over the prior decade.
Market Challenges
  • Annual starts fell 41.9% over the last 12 months — the sharpest production decline among all California BTB markets; at 14.3 months of inventory, the market is working through significant existing supply before new absorption resumes.
  • Median single-family prices reached $1.07 million in April 2026, with average rents 65.3% above the national average — conditions that are pushing middle-income households out of the region and creating structural labor supply constraints across all sectors.
  • Post-wildfire California insurance dynamics are suppressing development feasibility in fire-adjacent inland communities including Rancho Bernardo, Scripps Ranch, and East County, concentrating viable new construction in coastal and near-coastal areas already supply-constrained.
Market Summary

San Diego is managing the deepest starts contraction in the California BTB group, but the demand signals underneath it are notably strong. A Pending Sales Index up nearly 28% YOY is unusual in a market with 14 months of supply, suggesting buyers are engaged even as builders wait for conditions to improve. The defense and life sciences employment base — $39 billion in annual defense spending, Shield AI’s $2.25 billion venture round — provides durable demand support. At $1.07 million for a single-family median and with insurance carrier withdrawal in fire-zone communities, the market has real limits on who can participate. Production will recover; the question is where and at what price point.

San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,405 | -18.2%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,918
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)

  • 24.2 Months of Supply (MOS)

  • 13.8 Under Construction MOS
Permits
  • Single-Family: 1,460 | +12.2%
  • Multi-Family: 2,394 | -11.2%
Market Possibilities
  • San Francisco office leasing hit 10.2 million square feet in 2025 — highest since 2019 — with AI companies accounting for over 80% of newly leased space; JLL projects the largest vacancy compression nationally in 2026, signaling a downtown recovery with direct residential spillover implications.
  • Mayor Lurie’s Downtown Revitalization Financing District (signed February 2026) creates a TIF mechanism for office-to-housing conversions with waived development impact and inclusionary fees, potentially unlocking hundreds of conversions in the Financial District and SoMa.
  • Single-family permits are up 12.2% YTD, and the Pending Sales Index is up 18.3% YOY — both positive leading indicators in a market with otherwise elevated inventory.
Market Challenges
  • At 24.2 months of supply — the highest inventory position in the entire BTB set — the market carries substantial excess supply that will absorb before new production resumes at meaningful volume; Under Construction MOS of 13.8 means the pipeline ahead is also elevated.
  • Bay Area transit agencies face structural deficits; the November 2026 Connect Bay Area ballot measure is a binary risk event — if the measure fails, BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit face service cuts that would directly affect transit-oriented development pipelines.
  • Federal tariffs on steel, aluminum, and building materials are compounding already-elevated Bay Area construction costs, with the California Construction Cost Index up approximately 5.6% YOY and developers budgeting at least 6% escalation contingency for 2027 planning.
Market Summary

San Francisco is in the early stages of a recovery narrative, but it’s starting from an exceptionally elevated inventory position. The AI-driven office leasing revival is real and consequential — 825 generative AI companies in the Bay Area represent durable employment demand — and the Downtown Revitalization Financing District gives conversion projects a meaningful economic pathway. For builders and lumber suppliers, the near-term opportunity is modest; the production market is constrained by 24 months of supply and construction cost escalation running well above national averages. The recovery will be measured in years, not quarters, and the transit funding vote in November is the clearest near-term binary risk to watch.

Tucson

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 2,735 | -20.3%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 3,243
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 5.6 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 3.4 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family: 1,997 | -3.8%
  • Multi-Family: 283 | -14.5%
Market Possibilities

  • Closings are at 3,617 annually, down only 3.0% year over year, holding up better than starts.

  • Total housing inventory has declined since the start of the year, with 3.7 months under construction and 1.8 months of finished vacant supply, keeping overall supply relatively contained.

  • Household growth is running at 1.3%, and median household income is projected to rise 3.7% annually over the next two years, supporting longer-term demand.

Market Challenges
  • Annual starts declined 20.3% over the last 12 months; construction employment dropped 4.8% YOY in April 2026 — the largest sector decrease in the metro — signaling current production-side stress.
  • Approximately 2,800 multifamily units are scheduled for delivery in 2026, a cyclical high driven by prior-year delays, which is expected to temporarily pressure vacancy and rents in Class B and C assets.
  • Outer-ring growth areas remain more dependent on groundwater than Phoenix’s inner metro, and the April 2026 court ruling reinstating ADWR certifications still leaves the regulatory path for formal rulemaking unsettled.
Market Summary

Tucson is navigating a contraction in starts and a near-term multifamily supply spike while its underlying demand signals hold. The Pending Sales Index is up nearly 14% YOY, the market sits in mild undersupply, and significant public infrastructure investment — led by the $2.67 billion RTA Next plan — is directly serving the Marana and Vail corridors where most new construction is concentrated. Construction employment is under pressure, and the multifamily supply wave of 2026 will take time to digest. Water and groundwater regulatory clarity remain the long-range constraint that infrastructure dollars alone can’t solve.

Tulsa

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 2,337 | -5.6%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,918
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 7.2 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 4.0 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  •  Single-Family: 1,482 | -24.5%
  •  Multi-Family: 945 | +61.5%
Market Possibilities
  • Meta’s $1+ billion, 2-million-square-foot AI data center in east Tulsa (announced April 2026, approximately 1,000 peak construction workers, 100 permanent jobs) is the first Oklahoma data center commitment from a major hyperscale operator and includes $25 million in direct local infrastructure investment.
  • Park Aerospace’s new advanced composite materials facility (announced July 21, 2026, Tulsa International Airport North Development Area) and Quantum Space’s manufacturing facility (announced May 2026, Spartan Building, Q1 2027 operations) are the leading edge of a formal Oklahoma space industry strategy centering Tulsa as its anchor.
  • Zonda estimates the market 2.1% underbuilt with apartment vacancy at 4.8% and 2–3.5% annual rent growth; multifamily supply contracted to just 300 units delivered in Q1 2026 — a sharp pullback that is tightening conditions for 2027.
Market Challenges
  • Single-family permits are down 24.5% YTD (NAHB), and Zonda’s 17.7% overvaluation reading indicates that new-home prices have outpaced incomes in a metro with modest organic demand growth; new construction absorption in price ranges above $300,000 is particularly slow per Zonda.
  • Tulsa’s population growth runs below the pace of high-growth Sun Belt metros, and the 2024 Housing Strategy Report identified a need for nearly 13,000 units across income categories — a need that the current production level and financing environment are not meeting.
  • North Tulsa infrastructure gaps — roads, utilities, schools — have not kept pace with development aspirations, limiting the effective development footprint and concentrating new construction in southeastern and suburban corridors where land and infrastructure support are stronger.
Market Summary

Tulsa is a market where headline investment activity has outrun the residential production story. Meta’s data center, Pratt & Whitney’s expansion, and the emerging space cluster at Tulsa International Airport are real economic diversification wins. But the residential side is producing below what the market’s own 2024 housing strategy identifies as needed: single-family permits are down sharply, overvaluation is elevated, and absorption above $300,000 is sluggish. The multifamily correction creates opportunity as the supply pipeline thins into 2027, and GKFF’s downtown program continues strengthening urban fundamentals. The demand catalysts are genuine; they’re simply slow-moving relative to current price levels.

Columbus, OH

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 4,063 | -22.7%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 4,457
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 6.2 Months of Supply
  • 3.9 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family Permits: 2,759 | -2.9%
  • Multi-Family Permits: 3,438 | -45.5%
Market Possibilities
  • Columbus is on track to become the second-largest data center hub in the Great Lakes region by 2030, anchored by Meta’s Prometheus campus (world’s first requiring 1+ GW of power, completing 2026), Google’s $20+ billion Ohio commitment, and Microsoft’s Heath and Hebron campuses; construction is the fastest-growing employment sector in Columbus MSA at 5.2% YOY.
  • Intel’s Ohio One campus ($28 billion total commitment, $1.4 billion invested in 2025 alone, 6.4 million construction hours logged) continues at full pace despite the fab production timeline revision to 2031–2032; the physical construction activity and its associated workforce demand are a present reality.
  • Zonda estimates Columbus 3.1% underbuilt with the market 21.0% overvalued — a pairing that reflects genuine demand pressure on the for-sale side; a Pending Sales Index up 26.9% YOY is among the strongest forward-demand signals in the Midwest BTB group.
Market Challenges
  • Two consecutive years of record multifamily supply (9,668 units in 2025; 9,160 expected in 2026) have compressed rent growth to 0.37–0.44% through Q1 2026, with concessions widespread — multifamily starts have already contracted to 55% of 2025 levels, and NAHB YTD multifamily permits are down 45.5%.
  • Intel’s permanent employment impact has been deferred to 2031+ with the revised fab timeline; the 3,000 high-wage permanent positions that would anchor residential demand in Licking County are not yet a near-term factor, even as construction activity continues.
  • Large-scale concurrent construction programs — Intel fab, data center cluster, airport terminal expansion ($2B), Nationwide Children’s Hospital Tower ($1–1.5B) — are competing for the same licensed electricians, pipefitters, and ironworkers as residential and smaller commercial projects, elevating labor costs and scheduling uncertainty.
Market Summary

Columbus is a market where investment is arriving faster than the labor market can accommodate. The data center and semiconductor buildout is adding construction work at a pace the city hasn’t seen, the Pending Sales Index is up nearly 27% YOY, and Zonda’s 21% overvaluation reading reflects genuine demand-supply tension. The near-term challenge is twofold: the multifamily correction will take through 2026 to digest, and the Intel permanent employment catalyst has been pushed to 2031+. For builders and lumber dealers, the single-family side looks constructive — moderate starts, growing demand signals, structural undersupply — while multifamily needs the current absorption cycle to work through before new starts make sense.

Indianapolis/Carmel/Greenwood

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 6,300 | -22.9%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 6,817
Housing Inventory (Months of Supply)
  • 5.4 Months of Supply (MOS)
  • 3.6 Under Construction MOS
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family Permits: 4,663 | -4.2%
  • Multi-Family Permits: 2,296 | +121.4%
Market Possibilities
  • Eli Lilly opened its Lebanon Advanced Therapies facility at LEAP in May 2026 and simultaneously announced an additional $4.5 billion investment, bringing total planned capital to over $18 billion — the largest pharmaceutical API manufacturing commitment in U.S. history, creating direct workforce housing demand in Boone County communities.
  • The 1.8% underbuilt position, combined with 5.4 months of supply and a Pending Sales Index up 13.6% YOY, indicates that demand fundamentals are absorbing the current starts contraction without creating oversupply conditions.
  • Lebanon (Boone County) has 1,100 housing units under active TIF-financed construction specifically driven by Lilly LEAP workforce demand — a concrete, funded pipeline in the $400,000–$600,000 price range.
Market Challenges
  • Annual starts fell 22.9% over the last 12 months; Zonda estimates the market 19.0% overvalued — the second-highest overvaluation reading among Indiana/Midwest BTB markets — compressing affordability for buyers relying on financing.
  • Concurrent large-scale construction programs (IU Health $4.3B, Signia/Convention Center $781M, Lilly Medicine Foundry 1.2M SF, Traction Yards $600M) are creating acute competition for skilled trades, elevating wage and scheduling risks for residential and smaller commercial projects.
  • Multifamily construction starts contracted approximately 65% YOY in 2025, driven by financing costs rather than demand weakness; the near-term pipeline thinning sets up tighter apartment supply in 2027–2028, but the gap between current financing feasibility and future demand remains a builder planning challenge.
Market Summary

Indianapolis is running two stories at once. The headline is a 23% starts contraction in a market Zonda estimates as 19% overvalued. The underlying story is that Eli Lilly is building what amounts to a small city in Lebanon, IU Health and Signia projects are putting billions into the ground, and the metro’s fundamentals — 3.3% unemployment, 7.6% wage growth — are among the strongest in the Midwest. For dealers and suppliers, the near-term residential environment is soft, but the workforce demand that will refill that pipeline is actively being created through the megaproject buildout. The labor competition for licensed trades is the shared constraint across all of it.

Kansas City

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • N/A
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family Permits: 2,808 | +10.7%
  • Multi-Family Permits: 3,011 | +16.0%
Market Possibilities
  • Panasonic Energy’s $4 billion, 300-acre EV battery plant in De Soto (opened July 2025, ramping toward 4,000 jobs by 2027) is the largest economic project in Kansas history, with 1,100 housing units already under TIF-financed construction in Johnson County communities specifically serving those workers.
  • The KC Royals’ $3+ billion Crown Center ballpark and 85-acre mixed-use development (groundbreaking 2026, 20,000+ construction jobs expected) plus a planned $100 billion data center campus in Northland represent the most concentrated nonresidential investment commitment in the metro’s recent history.
  • The market is 3.2% underbuilt per Zonda, single-family permits are up 10.7% YTD, and median new home closing prices rose 12.7% YOY — the market is actively underproducing against a growing demand base.
Market Challenges
  • Zonda estimates Kansas City 20.4% overvalued — the second-highest overvaluation reading in the BTB set — as new-home price appreciation has outpaced income growth; new home closings are down 11% YOY per county deed records.
  • National construction material cost increases exacerbated by tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and components are elevating project costs for industrial and residential development alike, with NAHB’s chief economist citing affordability as a central constraint for the market.
  • Kansas City Council’s new zoning restrictions on data centers (January 2026) and the parallel Chiefs/Kansas domed stadium competition introduce regulatory and land-use uncertainty that could affect where future sports- and tech-adjacent development concentrates.
Market Summary

Kansas City is delivering a strong underlying growth story — underbuilt, permits rising on the single-family side, median prices up sharply — but affordability has run ahead of the income base, and Zonda’s 20.4% overvaluation reading is one of the highest in the entire BTB set. The Panasonic and Crown Center investments are the kind of demand catalysts that sustain residential production through a rate cycle, and the metro’s industrial fundamentals (third-lowest vacancy among top-30 U.S. markets) signal continued job growth. The near-term risk is that cost escalation from tariffs, combined with overvaluation, compresses the entry-level and workforce price point precisely when the market most needs affordable production.

Paul-Pfingsten_2023-scaled-e1755618671606

Paul Pfingsten
Director of OSB Sales

LETTER FROM PAUL

It is hard to believe that we are already approaching the end of the first quarter as I write this letter. It feels like we were just negotiating our 2026 OSB contracts, and here we are closing out the third month of those agreements. Thank you for your continued loyalty and genuine partnership.

We began 2026 with annual mill maintenance outages quickly approaching. Our team executed inventory build plans in both Corrigan and Oakdale to support your needs through our scheduled downtime. Unfortunately, extreme winter weather created unexpected challenges in executing those plans. Winter storm Fern swept across the South in late January, right as we were amidst our outage in Corrigan, TX. The freezing temperatures not only hampered transportation, but they stalled outage progress work as well. With temperatures remaining below freezing for multiple days, we made the decision to implement a controlled shut down across all production facilities. Safety is always our top priority at RoyOMartin, and we cannot operate our mills safely and effectively under those conditions. 

This “perfect storm” of sorts resulted in extended outage time in Corrigan and significant lost production in Oakdale. We did our absolute best to keep you informed as the situation developed and evolved along the way, and I hope that communication helped you plan as effectively as possible. Our teams responded with urgency and commitment to bring our facilities back online as quickly as conditions allowed.

In addition, we made the decision to push our Oakdale outage from February to October. This decision was driven by our commitment to supporting your needs and minimizing further disruption. We take pride in making decisions that best serve our customers, and this is just another example of that commitment. Thank you for your patience and understanding as we worked through these challenges.

Looking ahead, there remains uncertainty around what the upcoming quarter will bring for the structural panel market. However, most sources suggest that 2026 may closely mirror 2025 from a home starts perspective. We hear about many of the same economic factors in play month after month: affordability constraints, mortgage rates, global uncertainty, and most recently, rising transportation costs, particularly with flatbed availability.

Regardless of market conditions, your team at RoyOMartin remains committed to producing high-quality structural panels and delivering industry-leading service. I cannot thank you enough for the continued partnership and trust. 

Lori Byrd August 2023 (2 of 6)

Lori Byrd
Director of Plywood and Solid Wood Sales​

LETTER FROM LORI

As we closed out the first half of 2026, the only thing predictable has been the unpredictable. We began the year with frigid temperatures that forced plant closures, and since then have navigated scalding summer heat, heat advisories, and weather that can’t seem to decide between monsoon and drought. Louisiana weather, as always, keeps us on our toes, and reminds us that flexibility is not optional in this business.

Through it all, plywood has had a good year. The market has seen its share of headwinds. Southern plywood lost a mill to weather-related damage, and tariffs were enacted largely as anticipated, but the fundamentals remain solid. While new and existing home sales are still suppressed, people continue to invest in what they have. Repair and remodel activity remains strong, and we are seeing a small but welcome uptick in new furniture consumption as a result.

On the production side, Chopin completed its second route-and-fill, which was another step forward as we continue to invest in and upgrade our facilities. We are proud of the progress being made and remain committed to operating at a high standard.

Looking ahead, we expect a steady plywood market. Will prices change? Yes, they always do. Back-to-school, college football season, the holidays, and yes, the weather will all play their part. But plywood benefits from a diverse end-use market, disciplined production, and a loyal customer base. We feel good about where we stand.

Our focus is, and always will be, the same: keep our people safe, make a quality product, and take care of the customer. Thank you to our owners, our team members, and our customers. Stay safe, and we look forward to a strong second half.