Overview

Welcome to the RoyOMartin Beyond the Board — your  snapshot of housing market trends, company performance, and regional development.

Scroll down to explore the latest edition and see how RoyOMartin continues to meet the needs of today’s housing market.

Market Insights

Key updates on housing affordability, building activity, and industry trends.

Company Insights

A look at RoyOMartin’s role in supporting affordable, resilient construction.

Regional Data

City-by-city permitting, starts, and sales information.

National Snapshot

Housing Steadies as Rates begin to Drift Lower; Affordability Still the Hurdle

Here’s where housing stands year-to-date:

Sales have steadied at low levels, prices are essentially flat, and inventory has inched higher, yet still below pre-pandemic norms. In July, existing-home sales ran at 4.01 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) with a $422,400 median price and 4.6 months of supply. Affordability remains the hinge: the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) shows the income needed to buy the median United States (U.S.) home hovering near record highs in the mid $120Ks range, reflecting the combined weight of home prices and borrowing costs.

Mortgage rates have eased from their peaks but sit in the low to mid-6% range, keeping many buyers cautious and shaping how builders position product and incentives. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) placed the 30-year fixed near ~6.35% in early September, while the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) remained near 32, well below the neutral 50 line. Every tenth of a point matters for monthly payments and qualification; a durable move closer to ~6% would likely spark more activity. Until then, the market is moving, just more deliberately, which is proof that even in a tight affordability cycle, steady execution, commitment to our partners, and disciplined product strategy can keep us building tomorrow together.

Paul Pfingsten 2023

A Letter from Paul

Lori Byrd August 2023 (2 of 6)

A Letter from Lori

Change in Single-Family Permits (%)

YTD through July 2025, single-family permits increased in only 16 states (from +0.5% in New Jersey to +18.1% in Hawaii), while 34 states and D.C. declined, with D.C. down 28.8%. The top 10 states accounted for 62.8% of permits, led by Texas (90,561, −7.2% YoY), with Florida (−11.9%) and North Carolina (−2.2%) also down.

Oriented Strandboard Pricing

September 2025, $165.00
September 2024, $281.00
Down, $116.00 (-41%)
*Despite a brief pick-up, prices have been trending downward over the last several months due to slower demand, while supply remains steady.

30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

Source/basis: Freddie Mac PMMS (30-yr fixed), via FRED series MORTGAGE30US;

Mortgage rates have held roughly steady in 2025, drifting a bit lower than last year—easing monthly payments slightly but leaving overall affordability tight.

New Residential Construction

(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)

Year over year, July building permits declined 5.7% to 1.354 million (SAAR), indicating a smaller pipeline than last summer
Housing starts rose 12.9% to 1.428 million, meaning more projects actually broke ground than a year ago.
Completions fell 13.5% to 1.415 million, with fewer homes finishing compared with July 2024.

Sources:

  • Home Sales, Construction Data and Starts: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Homebuilders, Zonda
  • Permitting: National Association of Homebuilders, Zonda
  • Economic Data and Indicators: The Business Journals, Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, msn.com, The Advocate
  • Pricing: Random Lengths, FastMarket RISI

More to Come From Beyond the Board

We’re constantly uncovering new ideas and industry perspectives. Check back soon for upcoming episodes, innovations, and stories that move the forest products industry forward.

View other company news and previous board briefs

Click here
Scroll to Top

Albuquerque

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,799 +3.1%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,428 +2.3%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 5.9

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,034 -10%
  • Multi-Family 734 +155%
Market Possibilities
  • Redevelopment momentum
    New city-approved projects are adding housing and commercial space, signaling confidence and growth potential.
  • Job and income growth
    Steady job creation and rising median incomes give families a stronger foundation to invest in homes.
  • Investor activity
    Renewed interest from developers and investors is bringing fresh capital and opportunity into the market.
Market Challenges
  • Affordability squeeze
    Home prices are climbing faster than household incomes, making it tougher for many families to buy.
  • Sales slowdown
    Pending home sales have dropped, reflecting buyer hesitation in the face of higher costs and rate volatility.
  • Housing shortage
    Inventory remains tight, leaving demand underserved and competition high.

In Albuquerque, the housing market is showing both  promise and challenge as we move through 2025. On the bright side, new redevelopment projects, business investments, and steady job growth are creating momentum. Families are still forming, and home values are holding strong, pointing to confidence in the market’s future. But we can’t ignore the hurdles. Home prices are rising faster than incomes, which is putting pressure on affordability, and pending sales have slowed as buyers pause to catch their breath. Add in a continued shortage of available housing, and it’s clear there’s work to be done. Still, these very challenges are what create opportunity. By understanding where the market stands today, we can keep building tomorrow—together.

Baton Rouge

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,603 -8%
  • Multi-Family 410 +310%
Market Possibilities
  • Major Industrial Investment
    The $4B ammonia plant project promises 1,000+ new jobs, creating demand for housing and services.
  • Household Income Growth
    Median household income rose 3.3% YoY in 2024, with more gains forecasted.
  • Stable Price Point
    Median closing prices hover in the $250K–$300K range, keeping Baton Rouge relatively affordable compared to other metros.
Market Challenges
  • Affordability Pressure
    Home affordability declined in Q1 2025, with affordability ratios near 39%.
  • Loosening Supply
    More options on the market give buyers leverage, but builders face pressure to compete.
  • Rising Overvaluation Risk
    Market remains 17.6% overvalued in 2024, projected to     climb above 20% by 2026

Baton Rouge is showing a mix of promise and challenge as it enters mid-2025. On the opportunity side, a $4 billion low-carbon ammonia plant is poised to deliver over a thousand jobs, reinforcing the region’s economic base. This growth, coupled with rising household incomes, lays a foundation for steady housing demand. Median closing prices for new homes remain in the $250K to $300K range, offering a relative value compared to many U.S. metros.

The headwinds, however, are real. Affordability slipped again in early 2025, and while increased supply gives buyers more choice, it also places pressure on builders and developers to sharpen their strategies. With the market currently about 18% overvalued and projected to edge past 20% in the next two years, Baton Rouge will need to carefully balance growth with affordability to sustain its momentum.

Austin/Round Rock/Georgetown

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 15,849 -9.9%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 16,520 -2.0%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 3.9

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 8,371 -12%
  • Multi-Family 4,785 -24%
Market Possibilities
  • Strong job market & in-migration
    Austin’s steady job growth and roughly 1M new residents between 2020 and 2023 keep fueling long-term demand.
  • Relative affordability vs. rents
    High rental costs make homeownership an attractive option, creating opportunity for builders and buyers.
  • Large supply pipeline
    With over 36,000 vacant developed lots and 623 active projects, there’s plenty of land and construction capacity to support future growth.
Market Challenges
  • Oversupply pressures
    A surge of apartments and active listings has pushed inventory higher, slowing new home sales.
  • Affordability squeeze
    Median new home prices fell 5.2% YoY, but the affordability ratio climbed above 40%, stretching buyers’ budgets.
  • Extended timelines
    Median days to pending hover above 60, signaling slower buyer decisions and longer sales cycles.

Austin is working through a post-pandemic housing hangover, but the fundamentals are still strong. Jobs are being created, families are moving in, and the long-term trajectory points to growth. At the same time, oversupply in apartments and rising affordability concerns are testing the market’s resilience. Prices have softened, and homes are taking longer to sell, but that correction could set the stage for more balance in the months ahead. For builders, buyers, and investors, the Austin story remains one of opportunity — if you’re ready to adapt to the pace of today while keeping an eye on tomorrow.

Dallas/Fort Worth/Arlington

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 47,100 +3.8%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 35,945 -2.0%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 4.9

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 22,599 -10%
  • Multi-Family 13,663 +12%
Market Possibilities
  • Room to grow
    A $460 million extension of the Dallas North Tollway will fuel longterm expansion northward toward Celina and beyond.
  • Corporate magnet
    Big names like Toyota, Amazon Web Services, and State Farm continue to anchor jobs and attract new residents.
  • Land advantage
    Unlike land-constrained metros, Dallas still has room to build and support growth.
Market Challenges
  • Sales softness
    Annualized new home sales dipped year-over-year in late spring 2025.
  • Affordability gap
    North Dallas lacks enough housing options for lower-salaried workers.
  • Resource strain
    Managing water resources remains a key issue as population growth accelerates.

Dallas–Fort Worth remains one of the fastest-growing regions in the country, drawing new residents and major employers at a pace few places can match. A $460 million extension of the Dallas North Tollway will open the door to even more growth north of the metro, especially in booming towns like Celina. Corporate giants such as Toyota, Amazon Web Services, and State Farm are reinforcing the metro’s reputation as a job hub, while Dallas’ abundance of land continues to give it an edge compared to more constrained markets.

But challenges are part of the story. New home sales slowed year-over-year this spring, and affordability is becoming a pinch point—particularly for workers earning lower wages. As growth pushes northward, the management of water resources is another critical factor shaping the market’s sustainability. Dallas is building tomorrow at scale, but doing so will mean balancing growth with inclusivity and infrastructure.

Fayetteville/Springdale/Rogers

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 2,981 +1%
  • Multi-Family 1,138 +73%
Market Possibilities
  • Strong demand ahead
    Fayetteville is facing a significant housing shortfall, with thousands of new homes and rental units needed to keep pace with household growth by 2029.
  • First-time buyer potential
    Recently ranked among the top U.S. metros for affordability and opportunity, Fayetteville stands out for young buyers and families looking to build their future.
  • Steady household growth
    Households are projected to increase steadily, giving builders and developers room for consistent momentum.
Market Challenges
  • Affordability under pressure
    Home affordability ratios have slipped, putting more strain on lower- and middle-income buyers.
  • Job softness
    Slight job losses forecasted in 2025–2026 could dampen buyer confidence.
  • Overvaluation risk
    With homes nearly 23% overvalued, buyers may hesitate while waiting for better entry points. 

Fayetteville’s housing market is a tale of opportunity mixed with caution. The region has earned national recognition as one of the best places for first-time buyers, thanks to its mix of affordability and strong community fundamentals. Demand is clear—Cumberland County alone will need thousands of additional homes and rentals by 2029 to meet the pace of household growth. For builders, that signals a runway for consistent opportunity.

But challenges can’t be overlooked. Affordability ratios have slipped below historical levels, adding strain to lower-income buyers. A forecasted dip in jobs could further test consumer confidence, and with homes nearly a quarter overvalued, some buyers may take a wait-and-see approach. Still, Fayetteville’s position as a growing, affordable metro means it remains an important market to watch for steady, long-term growth.

Houston/The Woodlands/Sugar Land

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 38,815 +1.5%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 32,288 -2.0%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 4.9

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 25,721 -8%
  • Multi-Family 9,066 +72%
Market Possibilities
  • Population Growth
    Steady 2% annual increase, fueled by migration and a high birth rate, keeps long-term demand strong.
  • Millennial Market Power
    With Millennials making up nearly 30% of the local population, the region has a large pool of first-time and move-up buyers.
  • Builder Strength
    Large players like Lennar and D.R. Horton continue to dominate, steering project launches and pricing strategies.
Market Challenges
  • Buyer Caution
    Incentives like rate buydowns and closing cost help are common but not sparking urgency like they once did.
  • Affordability Pressures
    Home prices remain roughly 40% higher than pre-2019 levels, limiting accessibility for some buyers.
  • Market Overvaluation
    Valuations are currently about 20% over fundamentals, raising the risk of correction.

Houston’s housing market is finding its balance, even if some buyers remain cautious. Growth drivers are steady—population gains, a youthful buyer base, and major builders keeping projects moving forward. At the same time, higher prices are reshaping affordability, forcing buyers to weigh options carefully. Incentives help, but they no longer carry the same pull as in past cycles. What matters most is that Houston continues to grow, anchored by strong demographics and long-term fundamentals that keep it a market worth watching closely.

Lafayette

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,156 +9%
  • Multi-Family 2 -67%
Market Possibilities
  • Steady Job Market
    Unemployment is lower than Louisiana and U.S. averages, with nearly every job sector showing positive growth.
  • Policy Tailwinds
    New zoning code changes encourage more diverse housing options, opening doors for builders and buyers alike.
  • Affordable Entry Point
    With median new closing prices at $267,500, Lafayette remains more accessible compared to many metros.
Market Challenges
  • Slowing Demand
    Annualized new home closings are only modestly higher, while existing home closings are sliding.
  • Price Pressure
    Weak demand has capped home price growth, signaling a cooling trend.
  • Overvaluation Risk
    Homes remain 18%+ overvalued, making affordability a concern despite relative price advantages.

Lafayette is taking proactive steps to open doors for growth. City and Parish councils have passed zoning changes that lower barriers for ADUs, townhomes, condos, and mixed-use development—paving the way for more housing diversity. Coupled with a job market that’s outperforming both state and national averages, these changes give builders and buyers room to move. At the same time, housing demand is showing signs of softening, with new closings only modestly higher and existing closings trending down. Median prices remain steady, but the market is still running more than 18% overvalued, keeping affordability in the spotlight. For Lafayette, the next chapter is about balancing policy momentum with the realities of slower demand.

Las Vegas/Henderson/Paradise

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 11,923 +9.8%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 10,478 -3.5%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 4.5

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 5,301 -15%
  • Multi-Family 2,859 +106%
Market Possibilities
  • Growth Corridors
    The Boulder Highway redevelopment is set to bring new housing, retail, and entertainment, with more than 200 new homes from KB Home anchoring that activity.
  • Fresh Openings
    Lennar’s revival of the long-stalled Badlands golf course project opens the door to 1,800 new homes, signaling renewed confidence in the region’s capacity to expand.
  • Household Demand
    With nearly 17,000 new households projected in 2025 and income growth holding steady, underlying demand continues to push the market forward.
Market Challenges
  • Sales Softness
    Annualized new home sales dipped across product types, leaving builders to work harder to sustain momentum.
  • Jobs Pressure
    Two of the three largest high-income sectors posted negative growth, a reminder that job creation is uneven in the region.
  • Affordability Strain
    Median new home prices climbed past $540,000, with valuations running more than 27% above trend—placing pressure on entry-level buyers.

Las Vegas is no stranger to reinvention, and once again the city is leaning into change. The Boulder Highway corridor is being reshaped with new housing, retail, and a vision for a more connected, walkable future. Big builders like KB Home and Lennar are committing to thousands of new homes, adding energy to the valley’s growth story. Household formation remains steady, and incomes continue to climb, fueling long-term demand. Still, challenges remain—home sales have softened in recent months, job growth is uneven, and affordability is a real hurdle for many families. Yet, the spirit of Las Vegas has always been about resilience. With major investments in housing and infrastructure underway, the region is setting the stage for its next chapter of growth.

Little Rock/North Little Rock/Conway

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,380 +47%
  • Multi-Family 371 +41%
Market Possibilities
  • Local leadership is pushing forward with new projects, such as the recently approved Conway entertainment district, aimed at boosting jobs and tourism.
  • Median new home prices rose sharply to $395,000, creating opportunities for builders to serve higher-value buyers.
  • Job market stability continues, with household income growth steady and supporting long-term housing demand.
Market Challenges
  • Annualized new home closings declined year-over-year, reflecting softer demand in parts of the market.
  • The price gap between new and existing homes widened, with existing homes becoming a more attractive option for many buyers.
  • Entertainment development in North Little Rock stalled after years of delay, leaving uncertainty around large-scale revitalization projects.

In central Arkansas, the housing market is showing both resilience and growing pains. Median new home prices have surged to $395,000, signaling strength in higher-value segments, while household incomes are also ticking upward. At the same time, annualized new home closings slipped, and buyers are gravitating toward more affordable existing homes as the price gap widens. Local leadership is taking steps to spark momentum, with the Conway City Council recently approving a major entertainment district designed to attract investment and jobs. However, stalled development plans in North Little Rock remind us that big projects don’t always move forward as expected. For builders and buyers alike, the Little Rock–North Little Rock–Conway market remains one of opportunity—backed by steady job and income growth, but tempered by affordability pressures and uneven development progress.

Los Angeles/Long Beach/Anaheim

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 4,797 -26.2%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 4,355 -2.5%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 10.3

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family – 6,285 +5%
  • Multi-Family – 6,624 -6%
Market Possibilities
  • LA/OC has the fifth-largest tech talent workforce in North America, creating long-term economic strength.
  • Household incomes are climbing, with a 3.5% increase YOY.
  • Strong price resilience: new home median price hit $1.05M, up 12.8% YOY.
Market Challenges
  • Pending new home sales dropped -21.4% YOY, showing demand headwinds.
  • The metro is 26% overvalued, pushing affordability further out of reach.
  • Fiscal challenges loom—budget cuts and layoffs in city government could pressure stability.

Los Angeles and Orange County continue to stand tall as an economic powerhouse, but the housing market shows the same balancing act we’ve seen across the country. Tech and talent are fueling opportunity, and incomes are inching higher, which supports demand for the long haul. At the same time, new home prices have pushed past the million-dollar mark, making affordability one of the region’s toughest opponents. Sales activity has cooled, and city-level fiscal challenges are adding uncertainty. The fundamentals here are strong, but the road ahead is about finding balance between growth, affordability, and stability.

Ogden/Clearfield

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,847 +22.5%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,159 +1.2%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 6.4

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 959 -17%
  • Multi-Family 608 -28%
Market Possibilities
  • Ogden ranked #2 on the Milken Institute’s Best-Performing Cities list for 2025, highlighting strong job growth, affordable housing, and economic equality.
  • Median household income rose nearly 5% to $105,280, providing support for housing demand.
  • Sales activity and high-end transactions are climbing, with affluent buyers seeking value and lifestyle amenities in Ogden Valley compared to pricier SLC or Park City.
Market Challenges
  • Roughly 100 IRS layoffs already occurred this year in Ogden, with as many as 1,000 more expected—creating economic anxiety and consumer uncertainty.
  • Annualized new home closings dropped nearly 10% YOY, signaling slower absorption in parts of the market.
  • Valuations are stretched at 28.5% over fundamentals, putting pressure on affordability for many buyers.

Oklahoma City

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 4,644 +23.5%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 3,433 +1.6%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)
  • 5
Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 3,463 +15%
  • Multi-Family 1,155 +26%
Market Possibilities
  • Oklahoma City was ranked the #1 Best Big City to Live by U.S. News & World Report for 2025–26, praised for affordability and job opportunities.
  • Median new home prices are still well below national averages, helping the city stay attractive to buyers.
  • Strong population growth and new construction activity are supporting steady demand, with local officials prioritizing infill development to add supply.
Market Challenges
  • Annualized new home sales were down year-over-year, showing some cooling in buyer momentum.
  • OKC’s average new home sales rate lagged the national average this spring.
  • Job growth is expected to slow in the next few years, particularly with decreases forecast in government and manufacturing sectors.

Oklahoma City is showing why it continues to be one of the most stable large metros in the country. Affordability remains a key strength, with median new home prices well below national benchmarks, and the city’s reputation for livability earned it top honors as the #1 Best Big City to Live. Steady job growth in industries like tech and aerospace, combined with a growing population, reinforces the city’s long-term potential. At the same time, annualized new home sales have slowed, and forecasts suggest softer job growth ahead in government and manufacturing. Even so, with proactive leadership focusing on new construction and infill housing, Oklahoma City is positioning itself to keep building tomorrow together.

Phoenix/Mesa/Chandler

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 23,007 +19.5%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 19,678 -2.8%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 4.6

Permits (Phoenix/Mesa/Scottsdale)
  • Single-Family 13,935 -13%
  • Multi-Family 6,429 -22%
Market Possibilities
  • Population, households, and incomes continue to climb in Maricopa County, keeping the foundation strong for housing demand.
  • Median new closing prices held steady around $485K, showing resilience even as national trends soften.
  • Recent monthly data shows signs of stabilization, with February through April price growth hinting at a more buyer-friendly balance.
Market Challenges
  • Total annualized new home sales are down year-over-year, with demand cooling compared to 2024 highs.
  • Job growth turned negative in two key high-income sectors—professional and business services, and information.
  • The market remains nearly 24% overvalued, limiting affordability for many buyers.

Phoenix–Mesa–Chandler’s housing market continues to be one of contrasts. On one hand, population and household growth are steady, incomes are rising, and median prices are holding firm near $485,000. On the other hand, sales volumes are slipping year-over-year, and key job sectors are showing weakness, leaving some uncertainty in the broader economy. The silver lining is that price growth has recently cooled, creating more balance for buyers. While valuations remain stretched, the long-term fundamentals of steady migration and economic growth keep this metro among the strongest in the Southwest.

Provo/Orem

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 6,367 +25.7%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 4,616 +2.1%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 5.9

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 2,776 -1%
  • Multi-Family 928 +127%
Market Possibilities
  • Provo–Orem’s “Silicon Slopes” is attracting major firms like Adobe and Vivint, fueling job growth and boosting the local economy.
  • Household income continues to climb, with the median now at $103,780 and projected to rise steadily through 2027.
  • Housing starts jumped 38.5% year-over-year, adding supply to meet ongoing population and job growth.
Market Challenges
  • Retail sector activity has softened, even as Salt Lake City saw metro-wide retail growth of over 10%.
  • Median new home prices dipped slightly to $477,000, and affordability pressures remain with valuations at 23.6% over fundamentals.
  • Pending sales activity shows short-term cooling, with a 5.1% month-over-month decline in early 2025.

The Provo–Orem–Lehi market is anchored by its growing reputation as “Silicon Slopes,” pulling in tech giants and fueling sustained economic expansion. With job and household growth outpacing national averages, the housing sector is responding—starts are up sharply, and incomes continue to trend higher. But not all signals are green. Retail activity is lagging compared to nearby Salt Lake City, and new home prices slipped slightly as affordability remains a constraint. Still, Provo–Orem’s long-term fundamentals remain some of the strongest in the country, driven by tech sector momentum, strong incomes, and a young, growing population.

Reno

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,606 +35.5%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,493 +2.6%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 6.0

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,086 -17%
  • Multi-Family 753 -13%
Market Possibilities
  • Strong population and household growth continue, supported by a diversified economy that now includes tech and manufacturing alongside hospitality.
  • Median existing home prices rose 6.8% YOY to $592,290, reflecting demand strength even as supply has expanded.
  • Starts and closings are both up sharply (starts +35.5% YOY; closings +22.9% YOY), signaling builders are meeting buyer interest.
Market Challenges
  • Median new home prices dropped 7.8% YOY to $511,985, narrowing the spread with resale homes and hinting at affordability strain.
  • Valuations remain stretched, with the market 25.3% overvalued relative to fundamentals.
  • Job growth is slowing (+0.5% YOY), and reliance on large employers like Tesla and Panasonic exposes Reno to global trade and tariff volatility.

Reno has transformed from a hospitality hub into a broader economy anchored by tech and manufacturing. That diversification has fueled rapid growth—both in households and housing activity—as builders rush to meet demand. With existing home prices climbing and new construction starting to catch up, Reno is proving itself as more than a “Biggest Little City.” Still, affordability is a growing concern as valuations run hot, and slower job growth could test the market’s momentum. For now, the region’s economic mix and population inflows keep Reno firmly on the growth map.

Sacramento/Roseville/Folsom

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 7,515 +7%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 6,806 -2.5%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 4.3

Permits (Sacramento/Roseville/Arden/Arcade)
  • Single-Family 4,429 -9%
  • Multi-Family 1,181 -3%
Market Possibilities
  • UC Davis’ $1.1B Aggie Square innovation center officially opened, projected to create3,200–5,000 permanent jobs and inject over $2B annually into the economy.
  • A Community Benefits Agreement ensures at least 20% of new jobs will benefit nearby ZIP codes, tying growth directly to local residents.
  • Taylor Morrison has joined the Placer One project in Roseville, acquiring 201 lots and further solidifying momentum in a development that could bring over 5,600 new homes.
Market Challenges
  • Sacramento’s post-pandemic influx of Bay Area tech workers has cooled, with recalibrated demand adding uncertainty around long-term housing growth.
  • Tech sector volatility and the shift back toward office work may pressure income growth and buyer confidence.
  • Both new and existing home prices remain elevated relative to fundamentals, while active listings continue to rise, testing affordability.

Sacramento’s housing market is advancing on the strength of major investments like UC Davis’ Aggie Square innovation hub, which is expected to generate thousands of jobs and billions in annual economic activity. Large-scale residential projects, including Placer One in Roseville, highlight long-term builder confidence. At the same time, the post-pandemic migration wave from the Bay Area is tapering off, with tech sector volatility tempering household growth. Elevated home prices remain a challenge, but consistent demand and community-focused initiatives suggest Sacramento is positioning itself for balanced growth where residents benefit directly from new opportunities.

Salt Lake City

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 3,666 +11.5%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 2,617 -1.4%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 6.6

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 1,522 -15%
  • Multi-Family 1,637 +60%
Market Possibilities
  • The “Rio Grande Plan” is moving forward, with $12B in projected economic impact, 50,000 temporary jobs, and 13,500 permanent jobs expected.
  • Salt Lake City ranked #10 on Zillow’s hottest housing markets for 2025, climbing from #18, thanks to affordability, demand, and amenities.
  • Job growth remains steady, with 15,973 new jobs projected in 2025 and unemployment holding near 3.3%.
Market Challenges
  • The Great Salt Lake continues to dry up, raising environmental and long-term livability risks.
  • Pending new home sales are down nearly 15% YOY, pointing to weaker near-term housing demand.
  • Median new home prices slipped 2% YOY, suggesting affordability pressure remains a headwind.

Salt Lake City–Murray is charging ahead with transformative projects and steady economic fundamentals. The Rio Grande Plan could reshape the city, bringing billions in investment and thousands of jobs, while strong rankings on national housing lists reinforce its appeal to new residents. Still, housing data tells a mixed story—pending new home sales are slowing, and price trends show signs of adjustment. The drying Great Salt Lake adds a unique environmental challenge that could shape the region’s long-term future. Even so, Salt Lake’s affordability edge, economic diversity, and growth momentum make it one of the West’s most dynamic housing markets to watch.

San Antonio/New Braunfels

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 18,620 +14.4%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 16,827 +2.5%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 4.6

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Data not available
Market Possibilities
  • San Antonio’s annual new home starts rose nearly 15% year-over-year in 1Q25, outperforming Austin’s decline and underscoring strong regional demand.
  • The market continues to benefit from high domestic net migration—ranking fourth nationally in 2024 and leading among Texas metros.
  • Builders worked through finished vacant inventory, dropping to its lowest levels since early 2024, giving them greater pricing power moving forward.
Market Challenges
  • Resale market pressures persist as inventory rises, forcing some sellers to cut asking prices amid sluggish demand.
  • Median new closing prices dipped slightly while insurance costs climbed 4.8% in 2024, adding financial strain for buyers.
  • Annual starts slowed quarter-over-quarter to their weakest pace since 3Q23, signaling cooling momentum despite longer-term growth.

San Antonio’s housing market continues to shine compared to nearby Austin, posting nearly 15% annual growth in new home starts while its northern neighbor contracted. Migration remains a powerful driver, with San Antonio ranking among the nation’s top destinations for newcomers in 2024. Builders have gained leverage by working through excess inventory, though quarter-to-quarter slowing starts suggest caution ahead. Rising insurance costs and price sensitivity in the resale market present challenges, but the region’s growth trajectory and affordability advantage keep San Antonio firmly on the radar for long-term opportunity.

San Diego/Carlsbad

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 4,349 +66.9%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,936 -2.7%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 11.6

Permits
  • Single-Family 1,758 -1%
  • Multi-Family 3,900 +13%
Market Possibilities
  • The Otay Ranch development in Chula Vista is anchoring new growth, with 12,000 more homes planned, the majority for sale housing.
  • Starts surged 62% YoY, signaling builders are moving quickly to meet demand.
  • Median new home prices jumped 11.1% YoY to $898,000, reinforcing buyer appetite at higher price points.
Market Challenges
  • The metro is significantly overvalued at 24.9%, with affordability strained—only 16% of households can afford new homes.
  • Active projects are down to 63, less than half the level of 2019, reflecting regulatory barriers, limited land, and higher rates.
  • Wildfire risk and related lawsuits could further restrict new construction in San Diego County’s backcountry.

San Diego’s housing market is showing both strength and strain. Builders are charging ahead, with starts climbing more than 60% year-over-year and the Otay Ranch development set to deliver thousands of new homes over the next decade. Prices reflect demand, with the median new home closing price surging above $898,000, a record high. But affordability is a growing hurdle, with only 16% of households able to purchase new homes in the metro. Development remains tightly constrained—active projects are half of pre-pandemic levels—and regulatory challenges, high interest rates, and wildfire risk continue to complicate the picture. For builders, the San Diego market is one of immense opportunity but equally complex obstacles.

San Francisco/Oakland/Berkeley

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,627 -32.3%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,566 -1.6%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 11.4

Permits (San Francisco/Oakland/Hayward)
  • Single-Family 1,301 -9%
  • Multi-Family 2,695 +122%
Market Possibilities
  • Mayor Daniel Lurie’s proposed “Family Zoning” plan aims to overhaul zoning laws, easing density restrictions and boosting housing supply.
  • Median new home prices climbed nearly 10% YoY to $1.09M, showing sustained demand in higher-value segments.
  • Household growth remains steady, with more than 17,000 new households expected in 2025.
Market Challenges
  • Annualized new home sales are down sharply, with closings falling 27.7% and starts down 32.3% YoY.
  • The Bay Area lost jobs in 2024, posting negative annual job growth of -0.2%, adding pressure to affordability.
  • The metro remains overvalued by 22.8%, with affordability stretched as existing home prices exceed $1.3M.

San Francisco’s housing market is in transition. On one hand, policymakers are taking bold

steps to unlock new supply, with the mayor’s proposed “Family Zoning” plan designed to expand housing density and affordability across the region. Household growth continues, and high-end home values remain elevated, reflecting the enduring demand to live and invest in the Bay Area. At the same time, headwinds are undeniable. New home sales have slowed sharply, job losses have raised concern about economic momentum, and affordability is at historic lows with home prices among the highest in the nation. For builders, buyers, and policymakers alike, San Francisco remains a market of extraordinary opportunity—but one where affordability and execution of zoning reforms will define the path forward.

Tucson

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 3,413 +8.3%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 3,134 -2.5%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)

  • 4.1

Permits Year-to-Date
  • Single-Family 2,075 -13%
  • Multi-Family 331 -12%
Market Possibilities
  • New home starts climbed 30% YoY, showing builders are pushing forward despite tighter supply.
  • Median existing home prices rose 1.1%, suggesting ongoing buyer confidence even in a cooling market.
  • Affordability ratio improved to 25.8%, giving more buyers room to enter the market.
Market Challenges
  • Median new home prices fell 3.3% YoY, while total housing inventory dropped 25.2%.
  • Active supply is down across every category, with finished vacant homes at just 1.6 MOS.
  • Tucson remains 24.2% overvalued, raising long-term affordability concerns.

Tucson’s housing market is sending mixed signals. On the one hand, builders are stepping up, with new home starts up 30% YoY and planned projects like Mason Ranch adding much-needed luxury supply. Affordability has also ticked up, creating opportunity for more buyers to enter the market. At the same time, inventory is shrinking across the board, down 25% YoY, which could create pressure as demand stays steady. Median new home prices dipped, but resale values remain firm, keeping the market competitive. Tucson’s long-term fundamentals remain strong, but the balance of supply and affordability will be key in shaping growth.

Tulsa

Starts (Last 12 Months)
  • 2,442 +102.6%
New Home Sales (Last 12 Months)
  • 1,948 -1.5%
Under Construction (Months of Supply)
  • 4.4
Permits Year-to-Date
  •  Single-Family 1,963 +5%
  •  Multi-Family 585 +38%
Market Possibilities
  • Tulsa is bucking national trends: new home starts are surging, up 36% YoY and well above its typical Q1 average.
  • Domestic migration remains strong — Tulsa ranked #9 nationally for inbound moves in 2024.
  • Suburban growth is leading the way, with Broken Arrow and Bixby posting the highest start volumes.
Market Challenges
  • Affordability is tightening: the new-home affordability ratio hit a 10-year low in Q1 2025.
  • Vacant developed lots remain thin, particularly at price points under $250K, where demand is highest.
  • Despite gains, Tulsa is still working to balance lot supply with buyer needs to sustain momentum.

Tulsa is proving itself a growth market in 2025, standing out as one of the few metros where new-home activity is climbing. Starts in Q1 nearly doubled the long-term average, reflecting both builder confidence and steady in-migration. Families are moving into suburban hubs like Broken Arrow and Bixby, where new communities are taking shape. Yet the pressure is on: affordability challenges and lot shortages below $250K could test the market’s ability to meet demand. The story here is of a city on the rise, but one that must balance pace with accessibility.

Paul Pfingsten 2023

Paul Pfingsten
Director of OSB Sales

LETTER FROM PAUL

It is hard to believe that we are firmly into the fourth quarter of this calendar year as I write this letter.  It seems like only a short time ago that we were executing an inventory build plan in preparation for our press rebuild project at our Oakdale OSB facility.  Nevertheless, here we are staring down the final 12 weeks of the year.   We’ve had much to be excited about within our organization this year and are proud of the reinvestment that our ownership has made back into the business with a full press rebuild in Oakdale, LA.   This type of investment only solidifies RoyOMartin’s commitment to producing high quality OSB for many years to come. 

This year has not come without challenges as it relates to market conditions and the panel pricing environment.  We have all experienced the challenges of a sliding market since the first week of this year.  We have seen the printed price of OSB decline week after week, with very few exceptions.  Many of the same headwinds we have discussed for months remain in play.  A lack of home affordability, unfavorable mortgage rates, rising labor costs, and an imbalance of supply & demand in the panel market are just a few of those factors.  These challenges have only made our manufacturing and sales teams more laser focused than ever on production efficiencies, cost control, and on-time shipments just to name a few.  We do not take market related downtime in our facilities, so you can count on us to be the trusted partner you have come to know for years.

As we head into this final quarter, our OSB sales team is focused on preparation for the upcoming year.  We will be visible in the market supporting customer events, several tradeshows, and meeting with many of you to discuss contract opportunities for 2026.  I couldn’t complete this letter without mentioning the reintroduction of our TuffStrand Weather Resistant Barrier to our OSB family of products.  Please contact your salesperson for more information on this tape & panel solution or check it out on our website.  Thank you for your loyal support and partnership as we build tomorrow together.

Lori Byrd August 2023 (2 of 6)

Lori Byrd
Director of Plywood and Solid Wood Sales​

LETTER FROM LORI

As we move through the second half of 2025, the plywood market is steady but a little slower than we had hoped. Broader economic factors such as interest rates, the stock market, and talk of a recession, inflation, are all influencing buying activity, making customers more cautious. For now, prices are expected to hold steady, with little risk of sharp movement in either direction even with the upcoming tariffs.

In times like these, our focus remains clear. We are committed to running safely, maintaining quality, and keeping our employees working. By offering a diverse mix and strong customer service, we are positioned to serve our partners well through this quieter cycle.

Trading may take a little more effort right now, but we believe consistency and commitment will carry us through. We are here to support you and to make sure you have the products you need until the market conditions turn more favorable.